THE DYNAMICS OF SOME CLIMATE VARIABLES ON SOLID WASTE IN NIGERIA USING VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Abstract

This study investigated the long- run and short-run relationships between solid waste generation in Nigeria and two key climate variables: rainfall and temperature. Employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis on data from 1982 to 2022, then revealed counterintuitive findings. In the long run, lagged rainfall exhibits a negative association with solid waste (p < 0.05), potentially explained by increased waste decomposition in wetter conditions. Conversely, lagged temperature showed a positive association (p < 0.05), aligning with theories of increased consumption and economic activity in warmer periods. The short-run analysis unveils a self-correcting mechanism in solid waste generation and a statistically significant negative impact of lagged temperature (p < 0.05), requiring further investigation. Based on these findings, the study proposed policy implications for waste management strategies and data collection, emphasizing the need for sustainable solutions in the context of climate change