INFLUENCE OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES ON FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY IN KARADUA RIVER BASIN, KATSINA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examines land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their impacts on flood susceptibility in the Karadua River Basin, Katsina State, Nigeria, between 2017 and 2023. Supervised classification of Landsat imagery was conducted, with spatial integration and extraction by polygon. Weighted and decomposition analyses were applied to deduce the influence of LULC on flood susceptibility in the study area. The results revealed that the classified LULC achieved high classification accuracy (overall accuracy > 84%, Kappa coefficient > 0.81). Additionally, agricultural land was identified as the dominant LULC type, covering over 98% of the area, though it declined slightly (-0.20%). Built-up areas increased significantly (118.06%), indicating rapid growth, while vegetation and water bodies declined by 50.40% and 26.47%, respectively. The decomposed weighted analysis of the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and LULC highlighted changes in infiltration and runoff across different LULC classes and soil types, with the growth of built-up areas and vegetation loss contributing to increased flood susceptibility. These trends underscore the need for sustainable land-use practices to mitigate environmental degradation and reduce flood risks in the basin.