ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN LERE, KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study assessed climate variability in Lere by examining the seasonal and annual variability and trends of rainfall and temperature, as well as the trends of meteorological drought. Temperature and rainfall data were obtained from NASA Power Data Access. The variability was examined using the Coefficient of Variation (CV), the trend was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test, and the drought was examined using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The coefficient of variation revealed moderate variability in rainfall (18%) and low variability in temperature (minimum: 13%; maximum: 2%). The Mann-Kendall trend detected significant increases in minimum (Z = 3.014, p < 0.05) and maximum temperatures (Z = 0.23, p < 0.05), while rainfall exhibited a non-significant decreasing trend (Z = -1.431, p > 0.05). Seasonal trends showed significant increases in minimum and maximum temperatures (tau = 0.18, p < 0.0001) and a significant decline in rainfall (tau = -0.11, p = 0.004). Monthly trends mirrored seasonal results, with significant increases in minimum and maximum temperatures but non-significant decreases in rainfall. Drought analysis revealed durations of 25 and 30 months for SPEI-3 and SPEI-12, respectively, with maximum intensities of -2.762 and -1.975. All droughts exhibited significantly decreasing trends, underscoring the increasing climate variability in the study area. The study concluded that meteorological droughts are decreasing, even though seasonal and annual rainfall are decreasing. The study recommends that stakeholders should improve climate-smart agriculture practices while boosting afforestation activities to reduce the impacts of rising temperatures