TEMPORAL TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS OF ACUTE MALNUTRITION AMONG CHILDREN UNDER FIVE IN NORTHEAST NIGERIA: AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE APPROACH

Abstract

Acute malnutrition remains a critical public health challenge among children under five in Northeast Nigeria, exacerbated by protracted conflict, displacement, food insecurity, and inadequate healthcare. This study applied the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (2,0,2) model to examine historical trends from 2015 to 2024 and forecast malnutrition rates through 2034. Descriptive statistics revealed an average Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate of 18.3 %, with significant spikes (reaching 35.5 %) observed during the 2017 conflict escalation and seasonal lean periods. The ARIMA model continued fluctuations in GAM rates between 25 % and 53.5 %. Results highlighted the strong influence of socio-political instability and seasonal food scarcity on Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM), Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM), and Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). The findings underscore the need for targeted, data-driven interventions and early warning systems to mitigate future malnutrition crises. Strengthening food security, expanding community-based treatment programmes, and improving surveillance are essential to safeguarding child health outcomes in conflict-affected settings.