OPTIMIZING LASSA FEVER OUTBREAK CONTROL: A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE EFFICACY OF CONTACT TRACING INTEGRATION IN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS

Abstract

Lassa fever is a contagious viral haemorrhagic disease that remains a major public health concern in West Africa, especially in Nigeria. This paper develops a mathematical epidemiological model that captures the dynamics of Lassa fever spread and estimates the effectiveness of the contact tracing strategy in controlling this disease. The model includes the human-to-rodent interactions and human-to-human transmission. There are two comparative modeling frames: one with contact tracing mechanisms and the other without, which enables assessment of the epidemiological impact. The qualitative properties of the models, such as positivity and boundedness, were analyzed analytically, and the results showed that the models were well-posed. The elimination or persistence of a disease depends on the basic reproduction number (R0), which is calculated by the next-generation matrix method. The findings reveal that the successful application of contact tracing can significantly reduce reproduction numbers and limit the spread of the infection through early recognition and isolation of infected people. Further comparative analysis reveals that models using contact tracing have lower infection prevalence and better results in controlling the outbreak. The results show the relevance of timely contact response and proper surveillance in curbing the spread of Lassa fever. The research will make a useful contribution to policymakers and health officials in society by informing the development of evidence-based interventions and helping prevent the outbreak of Lassa fever.