SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE (1984–2019) AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR DESERTIFICATION IN NORTHERN SOKOTO STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study analysed the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall and temperature across five Local Government Areas (LGAs) in northern Sokoto State, Nigeria (Gudu, Tangaza, Illela, Gada, and Sabon Birni), between 1984 and 2019. The study area is highly vulnerable to desertification, and due to the limited availability of ground-based meteorological observations, satellite-derived climate datasets were employed. Rainfall data were obtained from the PERSIANN Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), while temperature data were derived from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Spatial patterns were analysed using kriging interpolation in ArcMap 10, while temporal trends were assessed using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate an overall increase in annual rainfall, although considerable spatial and inter-annual variability was observed across the study area. Also, temperature exhibited significant temporal fluctuations, with a marked warming trend during the latter part of the study period. The combined effects of temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to intensify evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture availability, and accelerate land degradation, thereby increasing the vulnerability of northern Sokoto State to desertification. The study highlights the need for climate-adaptive land-use planning and sustainable agricultural practices and evidence-based environmental management strategies to enhance resilience in northern Sokoto State.