SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME VULNERABILITY IN KADUNA STATE SENATORIAL ZONES

Abstract

This study examines the spatial patterns of crime vulnerability across the three senatorial zones of Kaduna State, Nigeria, using a mixed-methods approach. Data were obtained from a survey of 774 respondents, selected through a multistage sampling procedure; Focus Group Discussions (FGDs); police crime records; and geocoded crime incidents, analyzed using ArcGIS (2025). Descriptive statistics, Nearest Neighbour Index (NNI), and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were employed to investigate the distribution and determinants of crime vulnerability. The results indicate that kidnapping/banditry (24.7%) and property theft (19.8%) are the most prevalent crimes, while 67.1% of respondents confirmed the presence of organized criminal gangs. Marked spatial variations were observed across the senatorial zones. The Central Senatorial Zone recorded the highest rates of violent and organized crimes, particularly in Birnin Gwari and Giwa LGAs. Higher rates of theft, cultism, and student-related offences characterized the Northern Zone. At the same time, communal clashes, ethnic tensions, and land-related conflicts were more prevalent in the Southern Zone. NNI analysis revealed a clustered distribution of crime incidents across the state. At the same time, GWR revealed spatial heterogeneity in the influence of socioeconomic and environmental factors on crime vulnerability. This signifies that crime drivers vary significantly across locations. The findings highlight the limitations of uniform security strategies and stress the need for zone-specific, evidence-based interventions that address both structural socioeconomic conditions and local environmental factors. In conclusion, the study provides a geospatial evidence base for targeted crime prevention, resource allocation, and security planning in Kaduna State.