SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS AND STAKEHOLDER COMPLIANCE WITH THE SINGLE-USE PLASTICS BAN IN LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Single-use plastic has been reported to block urban drainage facilities in Lagos State, leading to a regulatory ban. This study evaluated policy awareness, compliance behaviour, economic impacts, and policy challenges across the state. All respondents in this study were selected through a multistage stratified sampling process across 20 local government areas, with a total sample size of 430. Chi-square (χ²) tests and multivariable binary logistic regression were used to analyse the data. Policy awareness reached 72.6%, with 52.4% of aware respondents reporting the ban. Routine daily plastic use decreased sharply from 71.6% (n = 308) before the ban to 0.5% (n = 2) after the ban. However, 70.2% (n = 302) did not switch to eco-friendly alternatives, citing high costs (81.5%, n = 246) and limited availability (67.9%, n = 205) as key barriers. Commercial operators faced 3.474 times higher odds of financial disruption than consumers (aOR = 3.474, 95% CI [1.236, 9.760], p = 0.018). There was a significant variation in perceived non-enforcement across senatorial districts (χ² = 13.411, p = 0.037), with Lagos East having higher perceived non-enforcement (26.6%) than Lagos West (74.4%). Lower-cost options (67.4%) were preferred by stakeholders over direct financial support (26.7%). Daily plastic dependence has decreased, but some gaps still exist, including business vulnerability and uneven enforcement. There is a need to move toward creating supply-side incentives and standardised monitoring in policy execution.