MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS IN KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study developed a mathematical model of COVID-19 infection transmission dynamics incorporating asymptomatically and symptomatically-infectious individuals, the vital dynamics such as birth rate and mortality rate, face-mask use, diagnosis of asymptomatic infectious individuals, and isolation of infected individuals as control strategy are also incorporated. The model is shown to have two unique equilibrium states, namely: the disease-free and endemic equilibrium states, and the basic reproduction number was computed using the next generation matrix operator. The results obtained from the normalised forward sensitivity index show that the contact rate, face-mask efficacy and compliance, and isolation rate are the most influential factors on the spread of COVID-19 infectious disease. Numerical simulations show that, decreasing the infection transmission parameter will also reduce the size of the infective population. From the numerical simulations and results, it is recommended that a combination of decreasing contact rate, increasing face mask compliance and efficacy, clinical diagnosis of asymptomatic individuals, and isolation of symptomatic individuals is vital to public health strategy in eradicating COVID-19 infection and death in the shortest possible time.