MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF MPOX MODEL IN THE PRESENCE OF EARLY SCREENING WITH THERAPY AND ISOLATION WITH TREATMENT AS CONTROL STRATEGIES

Abstract

This paper developed and analyzed a mathematical model of Mpox infection, incorporating early screening with therapy of the exposed and isolation with treatment of the infected individuals. The existence and uniqueness of the model solution, positivity, and the feasible region of the model solution were shown. Two equilibrium states of the model, namely disease-free equilibrium (DFE) state and endemic equilibrium (EE), were determined, and the basic reproduction number , was calculated using the next generation matrix method. It was shown that the DFE state is locally and globally asymptotically stable when . Similarly, the EE state was shown to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when , where  is the basic reproduction number for human and animal populations, respectively. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number with respect to the model parameters show that screening with therapy of exposed, progression from exposed class to infected class and isolation with treatment of infected individuals, are the most sensitive parameters. These analytical results would be validated using numerical simulation with real data.