DETERMINISTIC MODEL OF ANTI-BANDITRY DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA WITH INCORPORATION OF VULNERABLE COMMUNITY (IES)

Abstract

The banditry-induced insecurity in Nigeria has negatively impacted the human and socio-economic well-being of the citizenry. Consequently, Nigerian governments at different levels have deployed both kinetic and non-kinetic approaches to stem the tide of banditry. But these efforts have not brought out the desired results in terms of total safety. In light of this, this work studies the dynamics of anti-banditry controls and its overbearing effect on the vulnerable communities using mathematical models and analysis. This effort hints of two equilibrium points, namely banditry-free and anti-banditry induced equilibrium points. The stability analysis suggests the continuous growth of the community in the absence of banditry and banditry-induced chaotic dynamics when there is bandit groups’ proliferation. To determine the optimal strategy to stem the chaotic dynamics obtained at the anti-banditry induced equilibrium point, sensitivity analysis is performed on model parameters, and this effort revealed the need for blockage of banditry access to weapons and checkmating banditry collaborators/informants within the ravaging communities as effective optimal anti-banditry measures.