EXPLORING SMALL ARMS AND LIGHT WEAPONS CONTROL APPROACH TO ANTI-BANDITRY MEASURES USING DISCRETE TIME DELAY MODEL

Abstract

Uncontrollable access to arms and light weapons by bandit groups across Northwestern Nigeria is adjudged to be responsible for the unsuccessful fight against banditry in Nigeria. This study explores the impact of control of arms and light weapons on the anti-banditry measures using a time delay model and analysis. The conditions for attaining a critical steady state for anti-banditry dynamics are obtained, and the stability analysis of its critical steady state is determined. This result suggests an unstable critical steady state when arms and light weapons control is not enforced. With the enforcement of arms and light weapons control, the critical steady state undergo a supercritical Pitchfork bifurcation characterized by a control-induced regression of activities of bandit groups coupled with the return of progress and prosperity to the banditry-ravaged communities. All analytical results were verified, and the impact of arms and light weapons control is graphically showcased. The work postulates that the ongoing kinetic approach will not bring about a desirable lasting solution as long as arms and weapons proliferations are not controlled. Also, the findings hint at post-banditry government forces’ persistence and over-concentration which might degenerate into adversity if not properly planned.